Future Climate in the Yellowstone National Park Region and its Potential Impact on Vegetation.
Patrick J. Bartlein, Cathy Whitlock, and Sarah L. Shafer (1997),
Conservation Biology 11(3): 782-792.

Abstract

	Figure 1. Shaded relief map showing the topographic complexity of the Northern Rocky Mountain region, with locations referred to in the text. YNP is Yellowstone National Park. The area covered extends from 40 to 48 degrees N and 104 to 118 degrees W. The map is plotted using an equirectangular projection, and so scale varies across the map. (For reference, the east-west distance along the bottom edge of the map is approximately 1200 km.) (Fig1.gif , 65KB / Fig1.pdf, 113KB)
	Figure 2. (top half)  Climate in the northern Rocky Mountains and Yellowstone region (Yellowstone National Park is the outlined area at the center of each map). Present and simulated future (2xCO2) values of mean January and July temperature and precipitation. Present values were interpolated from standard climate station data onto a 5-min grid. The 2xCO2 values were obtained by adding interpolated anomalies (2xCO2 experiment minus control) from the Canadian Climate Center general circulation model experiment (Boer et al. 1992). (Fig2top.gif , 70KB / Fig2top.pdf, 795KB)
	Figure 2. (bottom half)  Potential range changes for selected tree taxa. Green shading indicates grid points where a specific taxon occurs under both the present and 2xCO2 climate, red shading indicates grid points where a taxon occurs under the present climate, but does not occur under 2xCO2 climate, and blue shading indicates grid points where a taxon does not occur under the present climate, but does occur under the 2xCO2 climate.  (fig2bot.gif , 68KB / Fig2bot1.pdf, 228KB)
	Figure 3. Climate analogues for two locations (triangles) at the northern margin of Yellowstone National Park. The left-hand panels of each pair show in white the grid points with projected future climates that are similar to the present climate at the location indicated by the triangle, while the right-hand panels show in white the grid points with present climates that are similar to the projected future climate at the location. The inverse-squared-Euclidian distance was used as the similarity measure, and the threshold value for indicating those grid points with climates similar to those of the target locations was determined by intercomparing the present climates at the individual grid points.  (Fig3.gif , 56KB / Fig3.pdf, 461KB)